Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BF515

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BF515   
# Created Fri Oct 19 01:09:59 2018
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   28 observations of   31
# Arc:   3.30y
# First observation: 2014/12/21
#  Last observation: 2018/04/10
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000292   0.087384  -0.000382  -0.033806   0.058777   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    23.18 DOF:   50 RMS:  0.16
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.38    0.38
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.344230E-05  9.163436E-02 -1.012777E-05 -3.591188E-02  6.094849E-02  7.895110E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.1230E-13 -9.8149E-14 -8.4544E-15  4.2270E-14  3.7682E-14 -3.3677E-13
 -9.8149E-14  3.9256E-13  4.7316E-14 -1.6989E-13  1.0937E-13  1.5256E-12
 -8.4544E-15  4.7316E-14  9.4071E-14 -7.5153E-14  1.2636E-14  2.3271E-13
  4.2270E-14 -1.6989E-13 -7.5153E-14  1.7822E-13 -8.7188E-15 -9.0386E-13
  3.7682E-14  1.0937E-13  1.2636E-14 -8.7188E-15  2.0527E-13  2.0997E-13
 -3.3677E-13  1.5256E-12  2.3271E-13 -9.0386E-13  2.0997E-13  7.8711E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   20.524551  102.252769    0.223263    0.335794   -0.896457  2457012.963138
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457010.5000  =  2014/12/19
Mean Anomaly:           21.42843 +/-     0.006
Argument of Peri:      105.23542 +/-     0.008
Long of Asc Node:      322.37219 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            28.28987 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.16942389 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     20.42986734 +/-    0.0008
Time of Perihelion: 2455002.8661 +/-       0.5
Perihelion:          16.96855968 +/-    0.0009
Aphelion:            23.89117499 +/-    0.0011
Period (y)               92.3435 +/-      0.01
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -3.24917371 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y           15.99952060 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z            5.75234888 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00421708 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00000146 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00138634 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   17.30986155 +/-    0.0001
Geocenter to KBO     16.40729681 +/-    0.0001
# Hcoef:  9.82

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BF515. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BF515) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 12  21.46236  07 03 23.183  +43 17 31.68  22.3w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2014 12  21.47558  07 03 22.981  +43 17 31.59  22.0w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2014 12  21.48880  07 03 22.774  +43 17 31.93  22.4w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2014 12  21.50208  07 03 22.576  +43 17 32.10  22.1w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2014 12  26.40404  07 02 08.78   +43 18 32.3   23.0R 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2014 12  26.41578  07 02 08.61   +43 18 32.3   23.1R 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  16.38663  06 56 46.054  +43 16 18.14  22.3w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  16.39885  06 56 45.849  +43 16 17.56  22.3w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  16.42323  06 56 45.439  +43 16 16.84  22.0w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  17.37948  06 56 31.13   +43 15 56.0   22.1R 15BF515   291  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  17.42128  06 56 30.46   +43 15 54.8   21.8R 15BF515   291  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  18.35135  06 56 16.750  +43 15 31.67  22.1w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  18.36399  06 56 16.547  +43 15 31.15  22.3w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  18.37664  06 56 16.389  +43 15 31.18  22.2w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 01  18.38934  06 56 16.176  +43 15 30.33  21.7w 15BF515   F51  C~1Ixw      
2015 03  16.12920  06 47 47.26   +42 18 52.9   22.1R 15BF515   G37  C~1OVC      
2015 03  16.19843  06 47 47.17   +42 18 46.9         15BF515   G37  C~1OVC      
2015 10  12.47073  07 35 45.13   +39 42 19.0   22.1R 15BF515   G37  C~2FaV      
2015 10  12.48615  07 35 45.20   +39 42 19.6         15BF515   G37  C~2FaV      
2015 11  08.42764  07 35 59.41   +40 00 26.1   21.9R 15BF515   G37  C~2FaV      
2015 11  08.49421  07 35 59.18   +40 00 29.2         15BF515   G37  C~2FaV      
2016 01  04.39256  07 26 09.055  +40 32 38.89  21.9w 15BF515   F51  C~2FaV      
2016 01  04.41554  07 26 08.754  +40 32 39.14  22.0w 15BF515   F51  C~2FaV      
2016 01  04.42709  07 26 08.554  +40 32 39.15  22.2w 15BF515   F51  C~2FaV      
2016 03  11.13323  07 13 29.70   +39 54 45.2   22.0R 15BF515   G37  C~1oa4      
2016 03  11.17352  07 13 29.52   +39 54 42.3         15BF515   G37  C~1oa4      
2016 03  11.18535  07 13 29.47   +39 54 41.5         15BF515   G37  C~1oa4      
2016 03  12.13081  07 13 25.65   +39 53 33.9   22.0R 15BF515   G37  C~1oa4      
2016 03  12.14238  07 13 25.61   +39 53 33.0         15BF515   G37  C~1oa4      
2018 04  10.13575  07 56 48.144  +33 37 11.24  22.3R 15BF515   G37  C~2bHJ      
2018 04  10.23470  07 56 48.205  +33 37 04.26        15BF515   G37  C~2bHJ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.17
  2   0.0000     -2.18     0.08      -0.35    -0.13
  3   0.0001     -4.46    -0.01      -0.27    -0.01
  4   0.0001     -6.63     0.02      -0.35    -0.04
  5   0.0135   -813.83    -0.29     -32.48     0.05
  6   0.0136   -815.68    -0.15     -32.69    -0.05
  7   0.0710  -4304.85     0.19    -533.48     0.28
  8   0.0710  -4307.02     0.02    -534.27    -0.05
  9   0.0711  -4311.41    -0.37    -535.42    -0.27
 10   0.0737  -4465.05 (  -0.33)   -571.17 (   0.88)
 11   0.0738  -4472.22 (  -0.74)   -573.06 (   0.69)
 12   0.0764  -4619.17     0.10    -610.35     0.02
 13   0.0764  -4621.33    -0.01    -611.08    -0.20
 14   0.0764  -4623.05     0.31    -611.22     0.17
 15   0.0765  -4625.29     0.13    -612.28    -0.38
 16   0.2318  -9936.95    -0.07   -4463.63     0.35
 17   0.2320  -9937.53    -0.05   -4469.70     0.23
 18   0.8077  23734.94    -0.02   -9220.12    -0.14
 19   0.8077  23735.61    -0.01   -9219.36    -0.06
 20   0.8815  23665.08    -0.09   -8113.34     0.35
 21   0.8817  23661.80 (   0.11)  -8110.83 (   0.49)
 22   1.0375  16588.31    -0.11   -7522.49    -0.05
 23   1.0375  16584.86     0.38   -7522.86     0.06
 24   1.0375  16582.60     0.10   -7523.26    -0.10
 25   1.2202   8345.92    -0.01  -11189.03    -0.01
 26   1.2203   8344.29    -0.03  -11192.21    -0.05
 27   1.2203   8343.84    -0.01  -11193.09     0.00
 28   1.2229   8310.12    -0.13  -11266.59    -0.06
 29   1.2229   8309.80    -0.03  -11267.55    -0.11
 30   3.3010  44413.01     0.14  -27498.75     0.11
 31   3.3012  44415.79    -0.14  -27505.59    -0.08

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BF515    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        20.496    20.501    20.491
ecceobj         0.172     0.172     0.171
incobj         28.299    28.299    28.299
qmin           15.477    16.795    16.546
qmax           24.959    24.022    24.001
amean          20.147    20.307    20.110
amin           19.884    20.102    19.822
amax           20.496    20.501    20.491
emean           0.206     0.163     0.165
emin            0.145     0.158     0.159
emax            0.230     0.172     0.171
imean          28.746    29.615    29.555
imin           27.998    29.550    29.245
imax           30.193    29.657    29.668
excite_mean     0.524     0.520     0.520
fracstop        0.030     0.001     0.002
cjmean          2.901     2.886     2.894

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       184.7     105.5     106.7
kozaiamp         78.4       2.5       3.8