Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BD519

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BD519   
# Created Wed Feb 20 02:10:27 2019
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   67 observations of   67
# Arc:   7.85y
# First observation: 2010/05/10
#  Last observation: 2018/03/18
# Chi-squared of fit:    60.86 DOF:  128 RMS:  0.17
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.45    0.87
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.533551E-05  1.828969E-02  1.704898E-06  3.359128E-03  2.061518E-02 -6.772635E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.5069E-13 -1.1221E-13  2.6464E-14 -1.5450E-14 -1.1175E-13 -5.0020E-13
 -1.1221E-13  5.3693E-14 -1.3411E-14  8.2879E-15  2.3595E-14  2.6270E-13
  2.6464E-14 -1.3411E-14  1.4944E-13 -2.6148E-14 -9.9771E-15 -7.3100E-14
 -1.5450E-14  8.2879E-15 -2.6148E-14  5.9402E-15  4.8077E-15  4.4627E-14
 -1.1175E-13  2.3595E-14 -9.9771E-15  4.8077E-15  1.1534E-13  1.6813E-13
 -5.0020E-13  2.6270E-13 -7.3100E-14  4.4627E-14  1.6813E-13  1.4209E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.060971  125.231944   -0.981220   -0.004531    0.242490  2455326.780736
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455326.5000  =  2010/05/10
Mean Anomaly:          309.18709 +/-     0.008
Argument of Peri:       95.07122 +/-     0.008
Long of Asc Node:      120.56659 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            10.38569 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.34265936 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     54.97241718 +/-    0.0053
Time of Perihelion: 2476339.4590 +/-      18.7
Perihelion:          36.13560383 +/-    0.0052
Aphelion:            73.80923052 +/-    0.0081
Period (y)              407.5918 +/-      0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -28.63697507 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           38.84887086 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z            0.89830343 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00145877 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00213661 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00042934 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   48.27153282 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     48.50825035 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  5.92

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BD519. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BD519) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2010 05  10.27997  08 31 26.931  +19 59 21.87  23.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2010 05  12.28253  08 31 30.861  +19 59 08.88  23.0G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2011 01  29.37276  08 39 25.870  +19 40 54.04  21.5G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2011 01  30.47116  08 39 20.965  +19 41 14.36  22.8w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2011 01  30.48633  08 39 20.899  +19 41 14.59  22.5w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2011 01  30.50259  08 39 20.829  +19 41 14.94  22.3w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2012 01  26.54310  08 44 23.538  +19 34 27.55  22.1G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2012 02  13.30727  08 43 04.918  +19 40 00.40  22.8w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2012 02  13.33638  08 43 04.788  +19 40 00.94  22.7w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2012 02  13.35096  08 43 04.719  +19 40 01.28  22.6w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 03  06.41021  08 51 16.650  +19 33 49.08  23.1G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2014 05  18.27319  08 50 15.602  +19 37 38.35  22.4G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2014 05  27.26059  08 50 38.532  +19 36 06.24  24.2G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2014 12  21.61155  09 01 18.074  +19 02 54.38  21.6G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 01  16.53425  08 59 40.942  +19 11 10.53  22.5w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  16.54650  08 59 40.895  +19 11 10.87  22.5w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  16.55878  08 59 40.846  +19 11 11.35  22.5w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  16.57109  08 59 40.781  +19 11 11.30  22.5w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.37309  08 59 24.313  +19 12 30.41  22.5w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.38512  08 59 24.269  +19 12 30.71  22.7w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.39717  08 59 24.203  +19 12 31.03  22.7w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  20.40942  08 59 24.150  +19 12 31.27  22.5w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 02  16.28998  08 57 24.198  +19 21 40.48  22.4G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 02  16.30230  08 57 24.154  +19 21 41.00  23.0G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 02  16.31468  08 57 24.091  +19 21 41.15  23.0G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 02  16.32704  08 57 24.052  +19 21 41.20  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 02  17.32690  08 57 19.720  +19 22 00.45  22.7G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 03  16.41390  08 55 37.722  +19 29 14.90  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2015 03  17.35351  08 55 34.906  +19 29 26.69  22.9w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  17.37857  08 55 34.821  +19 29 27.20  22.6w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  17.39112  08 55 34.788  +19 29 27.25  22.9w 15BD519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 11  08.62691  09 07 09.803  +18 47 25.58  23.2G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.58763  09 05 17.144  +19 00 05.59  22.1G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.60257  09 05 17.068  +19 00 05.64  22.6G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.61744  09 05 17.023  +19 00 05.84  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  07.63239  09 05 16.960  +19 00 06.36  21.8G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  08.42664  09 05 13.871  +19 00 22.41  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  08.44114  09 05 13.784  +19 00 22.69  23.0G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 01  08.45574  09 05 13.758  +19 00 22.88  22.7G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  03.37501  09 03 21.358  +19 09 33.41  20.9G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 02  05.56134  09 03 11.445  +19 10 19.56  20.9G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 03  03.24270  09 01 17.570  +19 18 51.32  22.7G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 04  28.26281  08 59 29.531  +19 25 55.37  22.8G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2016 05  02.25946  08 59 31.619  +19 25 42.86  22.8G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 01  28.39025  09 08 47.009  +18 59 18.71  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 01  28.40247  09 08 46.958  +18 59 19.18  22.4G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 01  28.41463  09 08 46.907  +18 59 19.42  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  04.51671  09 08 14.734  +19 01 55.13  22.6G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  04.52923  09 08 14.659  +19 01 55.25  22.5G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  04.54177  09 08 14.617  +19 01 55.55  22.5G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 02  04.55427  09 08 14.549  +19 01 55.91  22.7G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 03  17.27599  09 05 29.719  +19 14 18.57  22.5G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 11  20.58011  09 17 08.318  +18 30 26.55  22.4G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 12  26.61857  09 16 03.524  +18 38 30.65  21.0G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2017 12  28.62186  09 15 57.068  +18 39 09.84  20.9G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 01  10.43248  09 15 10.265  +18 43 32.59  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 01  11.60633  09 15 05.573  +18 43 58.64  21.2G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 01  14.55324  09 14 53.543  +18 45 02.59  22.8G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 01  14.56558  09 14 53.482  +18 45 02.75  22.0G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 01  14.57790  09 14 53.440  +18 45 03.16  22.4G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 01  14.59025  09 14 53.377  +18 45 03.36  22.9G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 01  23.39871  09 14 15.605  +18 48 20.82  22.3G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 02  12.35055  09 12 45.541  +18 55 46.43  22.5G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 02  12.36380  09 12 45.487  +18 55 46.81  22.6G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 02  12.37711  09 12 45.412  +18 55 47.04  22.8G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 02  12.39065  09 12 45.372  +18 55 47.20  22.8G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      
2018 03  18.24079  09 10 30.488  +19 05 58.21  24.0G 15BD519   F51  C~2rYL      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.23       0.00     0.24
  2   0.0055      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.10
  3   0.7230      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.16
  4   0.7261      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.05
  5   0.7261      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.00
  6   0.7261      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.05
  7   1.7146      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.20
  8   1.7633      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.01
  9   1.7633      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.00
 10   1.7634      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.08
 11   3.8224      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.21
 12   4.0219      0.00    -0.26       0.00    -0.45
 13   4.0465      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.31
 14   4.6169      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.15
 15   4.6879      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.05
 16   4.6879      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.13
 17   4.6880      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.36
 18   4.6880      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.06
 19   4.6984      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.02
 20   4.6984      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.06
 21   4.6985      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.13
 22   4.6985      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.11
 23   4.7721      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.16
 24   4.7721      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.13
 25   4.7722      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.04
 26   4.7722      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.15
 27   4.7749      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.04
 28   4.8491      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.16
 29   4.8517      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.00
 30   4.8517      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.20
 31   4.8518      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.10
 32   5.4986      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.04
 33   5.6627      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.13
 34   5.6628      0.00    -0.25       0.00    -0.12
 35   5.6628      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.21
 36   5.6628      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.01
 37   5.6650      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.12
 38   5.6651      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.14
 39   5.6651      0.00     0.32       0.00    -0.25
 40   5.7361      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.26
 41   5.7420      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.37
 42   5.8151      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.07
 43   5.9685      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.04
 44   5.9794      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.02
 45   6.7217      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.16
 46   6.7218      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.04
 47   6.7218      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.01
 48   6.7412      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.07
 49   6.7413      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.07
 50   6.7413      0.00     0.19       0.00    -0.04
 51   6.7413      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.05
 52   6.8528      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.08
 53   7.5326      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.10
 54   7.6313      0.00    -0.24       0.00    -0.00
 55   7.6368      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.87
 56   7.6719      0.00    -0.20       0.00     0.03
 57   7.6751      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.62
 58   7.6832      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.04
 59   7.6832      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.15
 60   7.6832      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.01
 61   7.6833      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.08
 62   7.7074      0.00    -0.24       0.00     0.04
 63   7.7620      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.05
 64   7.7620      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.04
 65   7.7621      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.02
 66   7.7621      0.00     0.23       0.00    -0.15
 67   7.8548      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.08

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BD519    quality flag:3

Type:         5:2EEE    5:2EEE    5:2EEE

axisobj        55.206    55.206    55.206
ecceobj         0.341     0.341     0.341
incobj         10.367    10.367    10.367
qmin           34.880    34.873    34.885
qmax           77.383    77.311    77.358
amean          55.463    55.463    55.463
amin           54.701    54.685    54.685
amax           56.410    56.389    56.401
emean           0.355     0.355     0.355
emin            0.337     0.337     0.337
emax            0.372     0.372     0.372
imean           7.598     7.602     7.597
imin            6.745     6.753     6.741
imax            8.855     8.855     8.855
excite_mean     0.379     0.379     0.379
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.058     3.058     3.058

libcent 0       180.8     180.2     180.6
libamp  0       111.6     112.3     111.5
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       155.6     155.9     155.3
kozaiamp         68.1      68.4      67.9