Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BD518

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BD518   
# Created Fri Oct 20 01:38:36 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   54 observations of   57
# Arc:   5.16y
# First observation: 2012/01/28
#  Last observation: 2017/03/28
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.015609   0.117265   0.003525  -0.023862   0.076147   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    19.66 DOF:  102 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.37    0.24
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.645863E-05  1.035960E-01 -5.687722E-06 -2.151070E-02  6.229055E-02 -1.612280E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  2.8532E-13 -1.6243E-13 -2.0745E-14  2.0918E-14 -6.2618E-14 -1.8426E-13
 -1.6243E-13  1.3420E-13  2.2954E-14 -2.3750E-14  5.3069E-14  2.0867E-13
 -2.0745E-14  2.2954E-14  1.9344E-13 -6.3722E-14  8.6455E-15  4.3293E-14
  2.0918E-14 -2.3750E-14 -6.3722E-14  2.6299E-14 -4.4909E-15 -4.6916E-14
 -6.2618E-14  5.3069E-14  8.6455E-15 -4.4909E-15  1.3935E-13  4.3249E-14
 -1.8426E-13  2.0867E-13  4.3293E-14 -4.6916E-14  4.3249E-14  4.1041E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   13.181411  117.961483   -0.171027    0.221369   -0.945085  2455954.965276
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455950.5000  =  2012/01/24
Mean Anomaly:          341.64267 +/-     0.001
Argument of Peri:      168.07698 +/-     0.002
Long of Asc Node:      344.01419 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            17.18614 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.30235799 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     23.35411281 +/-    0.0008
Time of Perihelion: 2458052.5859 +/-       0.1
Perihelion:          16.29281013 +/-    0.0007
Aphelion:            30.41541550 +/-    0.0011
Period (y)              112.8634 +/-      0.01
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -7.93239921 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y           14.58456977 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z            3.66071847 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00380388 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00254955 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00108205 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   17.00098504 +/-    0.0001
Geocenter to KBO     16.05380015 +/-    0.0001
# Hcoef:  9.36

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BD518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BD518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2012 01  28.46451  08 12 41.886  +33 27 23.23  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2012 01  28.47852  08 12 41.700  +33 27 23.39  21.4w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2012 01  28.49248  08 12 41.514  +33 27 23.58  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2012 01  28.50640  08 12 41.330  +33 27 23.81  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2012 12  22.54084  08 45 44.381  +30 19 22.61  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2012 12  22.55493  08 45 44.242  +30 19 23.26  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2012 12  22.56901  08 45 44.113  +30 19 23.97  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2012 12  22.58306  08 45 43.981  +30 19 24.63  21.8w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2014 05  17.27952  08 54 52.726  +26 55 49.97  22.1w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2014 05  17.28445  08 54 52.776  +26 55 49.62  22.1w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2014 05  17.28932  08 54 52.824  +26 55 49.26  21.8w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2014 05  17.29423  08 54 52.856  +26 55 48.84  21.9w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.41373  09 30 15.072  +24 00 06.07  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.42575  09 30 14.938  +24 00 06.52  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.43777  09 30 14.809  +24 00 07.06  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.44984  09 30 14.675  +24 00 07.66  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.57483  09 30 13.293  +24 00 13.27  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.58716  09 30 13.158  +24 00 13.86  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.59951  09 30 13.020  +24 00 14.45  21.4w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  17.61190  09 30 12.890  +24 00 14.97  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  22.39799  09 29 19.635  +24 03 51.10  21.4w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  22.41015  09 29 19.485  +24 03 51.66  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  22.42232  09 29 19.350  +24 03 52.19  21.4w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 01  22.43449  09 29 19.187  +24 03 52.33  21.4w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  11.35149  09 25 20.532  +24 17 14.28  21.9w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  11.36497  09 25 20.368  +24 17 14.82  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  11.37960  09 25 20.193  +24 17 15.23  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  12.34647  09 25 08.389  +24 17 47.86  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  12.35871  09 25 08.236  +24 17 48.34  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  12.37090  09 25 08.103  +24 17 48.84  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  12.38323  09 25 07.942  +24 17 49.10  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  17.33567  09 24 07.947  +24 20 24.36  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  17.34850  09 24 07.794  +24 20 24.58  21.4w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  17.36134  09 24 07.636  +24 20 25.04  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 02  17.37427  09 24 07.483  +24 20 25.32  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  14.26149  09 19 37.686  +24 27 07.50  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  14.27507  09 19 37.561  +24 27 07.62  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  14.28931  09 19 37.422  +24 27 07.74  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  15.24223  09 19 28.777  +24 27 08.88  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  15.25538  09 19 28.653  +24 27 08.95  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  15.26817  09 19 28.545  +24 27 08.90  21.9w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  15.28095  09 19 28.430  +24 27 08.85  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vY9      
2015 03  16.24371  09 19 19.855  +24 27 09.23  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  16.25677  09 19 19.731  +24 27 09.07  21.6w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  16.26976  09 19 19.617  +24 27 09.08  21.8w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  16.28271  09 19 19.502  +24 27 09.21  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  17.24267  09 19 11.128  +24 27 08.01  21.5w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  17.25575  09 19 11.010  +24 27 08.31  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  17.26876  09 19 10.898  +24 27 07.90  21.7w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2015 03  17.28175  09 19 10.780  +24 27 07.97  21.8w 15BD518   F51  C~1vYA      
2016 02  17.38482  09 47 36.00   +20 37 57.6   21.0V 15BD518   G96  C~1vYA      
2016 02  17.39414  09 47 35.93   +20 37 58.1   21.7V 15BD518   G96  C~1vYA      
2016 02  17.40345  09 47 35.80   +20 37 58.0   21.4V 15BD518   G96  C~1vYA      
2016 02  17.41277  09 47 35.67   +20 37 58.9   21.4V 15BD518   G96  C~1vYA      
2017 03  28.25177  10 03 10.790  +17 01 47.69  21.9w 15BD518   F51  C~2Bns      
2017 03  28.26209  10 03 10.738  +17 01 47.87  22.0w 15BD518   F51  C~2Bns      
2017 03  28.27236  10 03 10.623  +17 01 48.13  21.8w 15BD518   F51  C~2Bns      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.05
  2   0.0000     -2.30    -0.02      -0.36    -0.01
  3   0.0001     -4.62    -0.01      -0.70    -0.04
  4   0.0001     -6.91    -0.01      -0.99    -0.03
  5   0.9010  27472.15     0.10   -4317.31    -0.07
  6   0.9010  27470.20     0.01   -4317.22    -0.10
  7   0.9010  27468.36     0.03   -4317.03    -0.02
  8   0.9011  27466.50     0.02   -4316.91     0.00
  9   2.2993  38392.17    -0.23  -13921.81     0.07
 10   2.2993  38392.94    -0.06  -13921.95     0.17
 11   2.2993  38393.69     0.10  -13922.09     0.24
 12   2.2993  38394.25     0.06  -13922.37     0.18
 13   2.9704  71276.14    -0.19  -14100.77     0.11
 14   2.9705  71274.05    -0.16  -14101.05    -0.00
 15   2.9705  71271.98    -0.10  -14101.21     0.01
 16   2.9705  71269.82    -0.12  -14101.34     0.05
 17   2.9709  71247.81    -0.03  -14103.23    -0.00
 18   2.9709  71245.64    -0.03  -14103.37     0.04
 19   2.9709  71243.43    -0.06  -14103.53     0.07
 20   2.9710  71241.36     0.05  -14103.72     0.07
 21   2.9841  70394.29     0.18  -14175.95     0.17
 22   2.9841  70391.93     0.05  -14176.20     0.13
 23   2.9841  70389.79     0.14  -14176.40     0.15
 24   2.9842  70387.43     0.02  -14177.13    -0.37
 25   3.0387  66689.26    -0.02  -14645.54    -0.03
 26   3.0387  66686.74     0.00  -14645.86     0.06
 27   3.0388  66684.12     0.14  -14646.37     0.00
 28   3.0414  66505.20    -0.08  -14675.63    -0.10
 29   3.0415  66502.86    -0.12  -14675.96    -0.04
 30   3.0415  66500.79     0.10  -14676.16     0.14
 31   3.0415  66498.43     0.05  -14676.74    -0.06
 32   3.0551  65594.84    -0.01  -14834.65     0.16
 33   3.0551  65592.61     0.11  -14835.22     0.02
 34   3.0552  65590.21     0.07  -14835.59     0.09
 35   3.0552  65587.96     0.19  -14836.10     0.02
 36   3.1233  61670.07     0.07  -15812.13    -0.19
 37   3.1234  61668.29     0.07  -15812.64    -0.09
 38   3.1234  61666.31    -0.04  -15813.22    -0.04
 39   3.1260  61546.06     0.00  -15855.36    -0.15
 40   3.1261  61544.31    -0.06  -15855.91    -0.12
 41   3.1261  61542.84     0.10  -15856.50    -0.13
 42   3.1261  61541.26     0.17  -15857.12    -0.19
 43   3.1288  61422.31    -0.04  -15899.62     0.06
 44   3.1288  61420.66    -0.06  -15900.40    -0.13
 45   3.1288  61419.08    -0.01  -15900.96    -0.10
 46   3.1289  61417.43    -0.04  -15901.40     0.03
 47   3.1315  61301.92    -0.04  -15944.40    -0.09
 48   3.1315  61300.17    -0.20  -15944.70     0.21
 49   3.1316  61298.78     0.01  -15945.66    -0.16
 50   3.1316  61297.12    -0.07  -15946.18    -0.09
 51   4.0545  92321.58     0.01  -20342.95    -0.14
 52   4.0546  92320.26 (   0.58) -20342.85 (   0.27)
 53   4.0546  92318.31 (   0.54) -20343.74 (  -0.29)
 54   4.0546  92315.86    -0.01  -20343.60     0.16
 55   5.1630 114467.71     0.00  -28027.23    -0.11
 56   5.1630 114466.73 (   0.56) -28027.37 (   0.18)
 57   5.1631 114464.63    -0.01  -28027.84     0.14

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BD518    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        23.417    23.419    23.415
ecceobj         0.301     0.301     0.301
incobj         17.171    17.171    17.171
qmin           15.021    15.745    15.738
qmax           30.624    30.464    30.595
amean          23.081    23.053    23.171
amin           22.656    22.731    22.729
amax           23.417    23.419    23.642
emean           0.309     0.300     0.299
emin            0.291     0.292     0.286
emax            0.337     0.308     0.308
imean          17.899    18.170    18.143
imin           17.342    18.043    17.933
imax           18.216    18.219    18.213
excite_mean     0.436     0.432     0.432
fracstop        0.003     0.001     0.002
cjmean          2.884     2.887     2.885

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       178.6     172.6     174.8
kozaiamp         11.6       5.0       7.6