Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15BA519

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15BA519   
# Created Tue Oct 24 01:38:33 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   18 observations of   18
# Arc:  13.91y
# First observation: 2001/05/22
#  Last observation: 2015/04/21
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.003452   0.046573  -0.000160   0.002188   0.038269   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    23.22 DOF:   30 RMS:  0.20
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.37    0.43
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.817327E-05  3.951423E-02  2.701820E-06  1.844590E-03  3.226271E-02 -4.068344E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  7.3430E-13 -1.0018E-13  1.2512E-15 -2.1941E-15 -3.4984E-14 -7.3795E-14
 -1.0018E-13  8.7621E-14 -2.1151E-15  3.8243E-15  3.1876E-14  1.2697E-13
  1.2512E-15 -2.1151E-15  7.0705E-13 -5.3432E-14 -1.9108E-15 -3.3769E-15
 -2.1941E-15  3.8243E-15 -5.3432E-14  4.5508E-15  2.2222E-15  5.9367E-15
 -3.4984E-14  3.1876E-14 -1.9108E-15  2.2222E-15  3.2107E-13  9.0947E-14
 -7.3795E-14  1.2697E-13 -3.3769E-15  5.9367E-15  9.0947E-14  1.9946E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    1.001450  171.619716   -0.958875    0.005910   -0.344375  2452052.465973
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2452050.5000  =  2001/05/21
Mean Anomaly:          345.54176 +/-     0.004
Argument of Peri:       43.34549 +/-     0.006
Long of Asc Node:      152.79034 +/-     0.002
Inclination:             2.81589 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.21616394 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.44478383 +/-    0.0038
Time of Perihelion: 2455684.5896 +/-       0.9
Perihelion:          30.91824406 +/-    0.0038
Aphelion:            47.97132360 +/-    0.0052
Period (y)              247.7380 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -31.13702505 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y            3.62304315 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic Z            0.54179602 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00015290 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00336584 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00015067 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   31.35178326 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     30.99553894 +/-    0.0005
# Hcoef:  7.51

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BA519. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BA519) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2001 05  22.96523  11 30 47.62   +04 14 37.5   22.3R 15BA519   807  C~1vYC      
2001 05  23.06035  11 30 47.50   +04 14 39.0         15BA519   807  C~1vYC      
2013 04  10.41573  13 19 28.032  -06 03 20.32  22.6w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 04  10.42936  13 19 27.934  -06 03 19.62  22.1w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2013 04  10.45676  13 19 27.767  -06 03 18.55  22.5w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  28.50324  13 31 59.261  -07 14 40.84  22.3w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  28.51447  13 31 59.213  -07 14 40.70  22.6w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  28.52570  13 31 59.172  -07 14 40.23  22.7w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2014 02  28.53697  13 31 59.113  -07 14 39.81  22.6w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  26.62005  13 41 51.517  -08 10 07.02  22.7w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  26.63200  13 41 51.513  -08 10 07.33  22.7w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 01  26.64399  13 41 51.506  -08 10 07.14  22.4w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.45669  13 39 22.584  -07 51 42.51  22.8w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.48000  13 39 22.457  -07 51 41.42  22.5w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 03  22.49161  13 39 22.402  -07 51 41.26  22.5w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 04  21.40948  13 36 31.804  -07 34 25.89  22.3w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 04  21.43657  13 36 31.625  -07 34 25.19  22.2w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      
2015 04  21.45015  13 36 31.535  -07 34 24.61  22.4w 15BA519   F51  C~1vYC      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.37
  2   0.0003     -2.24    -0.25       0.67     0.43
  3  11.8835 114295.10     0.29    5272.88    -0.28
  4  11.8835 114292.98    -0.10    5272.96    -0.18
  5  11.8836 114289.44    -0.19    5272.96    -0.12
  6  12.7708 130497.20     0.15    5786.47     0.14
  7  12.7708 130496.20     0.13    5786.29    -0.06
  8  12.7709 130495.16     0.06    5786.53     0.14
  9  12.7709 130493.80    -0.32    5786.58     0.17
 10  13.6801 144077.69     0.01    6193.42     0.25
 11  13.6801 144077.78     0.06    6193.04    -0.19
 12  13.6802 144077.53    -0.24    6193.20    -0.09
 13  13.8302 140440.87     0.19    6395.28    -0.22
 14  13.8303 140437.71    -0.07    6395.61     0.12
 15  13.8303 140436.51     0.18    6395.41    -0.08
 16  13.9122 136462.28     0.15    6362.22     0.34
 17  13.9123 136458.35    -0.05    6361.76    -0.04
 18  13.9123 136456.25    -0.28    6361.78     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15BA519    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.258    39.269    39.247
ecceobj         0.213     0.213     0.213
incobj          2.819     2.819     2.819
qmin           30.227    30.222    30.199
qmax           49.397    49.354    49.362
amean          39.456    39.456    39.456
amin           38.989    38.977    38.978
amax           40.016    40.004    39.988
emean           0.219     0.219     0.219
emin            0.203     0.202     0.203
emax            0.236     0.235     0.236
imean           2.584     2.610     2.562
imin            1.866     1.916     1.824
imax            3.318     3.327     3.307
excite_mean     0.224     0.223     0.224
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.994     2.994     2.994

libcent 0       180.7     180.0     181.1
libamp  0        93.4      94.7      92.5
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       163.9     165.1     162.9
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     180.0