Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AN281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AN281   
# Created Mon Dec 18 02:38:08 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   39 observations of   39
# Arc:  12.25y
# First observation: 2004/12/21
#  Last observation: 2017/03/21
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.001696   0.021313   0.000017  -0.001220   0.024135   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    28.21 DOF:   72 RMS:  0.15
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.51    0.28
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.433453E-05  2.012394E-02 -1.407643E-06 -1.167009E-03  2.244342E-02 -2.070243E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  4.8433E-13 -1.0584E-13 -4.1361E-15  3.7467E-15 -7.0707E-14 -2.6665E-13
 -1.0584E-13  4.7974E-14  3.3133E-15 -2.4440E-15  3.5841E-14  1.7918E-13
 -4.1361E-15  3.3133E-15  3.8032E-13 -3.8955E-14 -6.2178E-15  1.8699E-14
  3.7467E-15 -2.4440E-15 -3.8955E-14  4.4900E-15 -1.9028E-15 -1.0099E-14
 -7.0707E-14  3.5841E-14 -6.2178E-15 -1.9028E-15  1.7487E-13  6.4447E-14
 -2.6665E-13  1.7918E-13  1.8699E-14 -1.0099E-14  6.4447E-14  7.8314E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   17.384348  154.435065    0.890218    0.124927   -0.398681  2453360.918248
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2453360.5000  =  2004/12/21
Mean Anomaly:          248.51344 +/-     0.025
Argument of Peri:      224.73516 +/-     0.018
Long of Asc Node:       53.32953 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            17.46580 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.13876846 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     42.17754650 +/-    0.0026
Time of Perihelion: 2484344.7093 +/-       6.4
Perihelion:          36.32463341 +/-    0.0029
Aphelion:            48.03045960 +/-    0.0035
Period (y)              273.9241 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -38.35558348 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y           19.33250985 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z           13.31253076 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00088105 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00230744 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00021124 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   44.96799080 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     44.55648334 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  5.35

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AN281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AN281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2004 12  21.417505 10 53 01.57   +25 58 20.8   21.7V 15AN281   645  C~1w3y      
2004 12  21.418334 10 53 01.57   +25 58 20.8   21.4V 15AN281   645  C~1w3y      
2004 12  21.420822 10 53 01.57   +25 58 20.8   22.5V 15AN281   645  C~1w3y      
2012 01  22.45617  11 23 50.568  +22 19 04.50  21.8w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2012 01  22.47028  11 23 50.531  +22 19 04.65  21.6w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2012 01  22.47164  11 23 50.529  +22 19 04.86  21.8w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2012 01  22.48432  11 23 50.487  +22 19 05.34  21.5w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2012 01  22.48567  11 23 50.504  +22 19 05.38  21.8w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2012 01  22.49835  11 23 50.435  +22 19 06.07  21.4w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2012 01  22.49973  11 23 50.437  +22 19 05.42  21.9w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  20.53688  11 31 03.783  +21 22 12.85  21.3i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  20.55032  11 31 03.727  +21 22 13.36  21.2i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  20.56383  11 31 03.660  +21 22 13.98  21.2i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  20.57744  11 31 03.593  +21 22 14.13  21.1i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  24.39402  11 30 46.678  +21 24 16.29  21.7w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  24.40652  11 30 46.614  +21 24 16.69  21.6w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  24.41906  11 30 46.560  +21 24 17.06  21.6w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2014 02  24.43160  11 30 46.516  +21 24 17.48  21.7w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 01  15.49382  11 37 36.553  +20 23 56.61  21.6r 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 01  15.50675  11 37 36.533  +20 23 57.03  21.7r 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 01  15.51962  11 37 36.499  +20 23 57.34  21.6r 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 01  15.53251  11 37 36.476  +20 23 57.70  21.6r 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 02  20.57213  11 35 36.686  +20 44 16.67  21.7w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 02  20.58573  11 35 36.622  +20 44 17.10  21.3w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 02  20.59936  11 35 36.561  +20 44 17.58  21.4w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 02  20.61315  11 35 36.504  +20 44 18.06  21.5w 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 03  28.30401  11 32 51.808  +21 00 04.11  21.0i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 03  28.31663  11 32 51.748  +21 00 04.29  21.1i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 03  28.32938  11 32 51.682  +21 00 04.38  21.1i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 03  28.34215  11 32 51.636  +21 00 04.92  21.1i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 04  07.40710  11 32 07.392  +21 02 35.90  20.8i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 04  07.42023  11 32 07.344  +21 02 36.29  21.0i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 04  07.43352  11 32 07.304  +21 02 36.32  21.0i 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 06  03.28309  11 29 49.134  +20 56 09.58  21.5r 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 06  03.29680  11 29 49.130  +20 56 09.35  21.3r 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2015 06  03.31057  11 29 49.129  +20 56 09.00  21.4r 15AN281   F51  C~1vY2      
2017 03  21.29500  11 42 25.567  +19 40 49.40  21.8w 15AN281   F51  C~2B01      
2017 03  21.30775  11 42 25.469  +19 40 50.21  21.8w 15AN281   F51  C~2B01      
2017 03  21.32046  11 42 25.444  +19 40 50.06  21.7w 15AN281   F51  C~2B01      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.12
  2   0.0000      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.10
  3   0.0000      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.05
  4   7.0857  28674.31    -0.11   -1163.98     0.03
  5   7.0857  28673.77     0.10   -1164.08    -0.25
  6   7.0857  28673.65     0.05   -1163.90    -0.09
  7   7.0857  28672.90    -0.03   -1163.73    -0.08
  8   7.0857  28673.10     0.24   -1163.59     0.05
  9   7.0858  28671.91    -0.27   -1163.40     0.08
 10   7.0858  28672.23     0.12   -1163.98    -0.51
 11   9.1667  35767.24    -0.02   -1470.23    -0.16
 12   9.1667  35766.28    -0.01   -1470.13    -0.06
 13   9.1667  35765.13    -0.18   -1470.01     0.06
 14   9.1668  35764.20    -0.12   -1470.31    -0.24
 15   9.1772  35490.29    -0.03   -1470.13    -0.13
 16   9.1772  35489.29    -0.12   -1470.19    -0.17
 17   9.1773  35488.42    -0.06   -1470.21    -0.18
 18   9.1773  35487.66     0.10   -1470.11    -0.07
 19  10.0673  42500.51    -0.05   -2028.50     0.23
 20  10.0673  42500.05     0.04   -2028.26     0.28
 21  10.0674  42499.46     0.01   -2028.21     0.14
 22  10.0674  42498.98     0.09   -2028.04     0.12
 23  10.1661  40358.76     0.12   -1728.22     0.07
 24  10.1661  40357.73     0.08   -1728.26     0.03
 25  10.1661  40356.71     0.04   -1728.23     0.05
 26  10.1662  40355.75     0.07   -1728.18     0.10
 27  10.2639  37782.86     0.09   -1962.71     0.09
 28  10.2639  37782.01     0.09   -1962.94     0.04
 29  10.2640  37781.12     0.07   -1963.29    -0.14
 30  10.2640  37780.27     0.09   -1963.11     0.22
 31  10.2916  37140.66    -0.21   -2116.85    -0.14
 32  10.2916  37139.86    -0.21   -2116.82     0.13
 33  10.2916  37139.34     0.07   -2117.05     0.13
 34  10.4473  35550.98     0.02   -3366.00     0.08
 35  10.4473  35551.04    -0.04   -3366.24     0.18
 36  10.4473  35551.19    -0.01   -3366.56     0.19
 37  12.2461  47542.10     0.26   -2403.72    -0.20
 38  12.2461  47540.41    -0.49   -2403.66     0.01
 39  12.2461  47540.16     0.19   -2403.97    -0.15

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AN281    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        41.834    41.842    41.827
ecceobj         0.140     0.140     0.140
incobj         17.477    17.477    17.477
qmin           35.289    35.237    35.244
qmax           48.946    49.024    49.065
amean          41.975    41.969    41.970
amin           41.612    41.618    41.614
amax           42.368    42.351    42.386
emean           0.136     0.137     0.137
emin            0.118     0.118     0.118
emax            0.156     0.158     0.158
imean          15.921    15.953    15.957
imin           15.019    15.063    15.096
imax           16.848    16.919    16.940
excite_mean     0.306     0.307     0.307
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.967     2.966     2.966

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.7     183.7     182.2
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     179.9