Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AK281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AK281   
# Created Tue Oct 24 01:38:32 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   19 observations of   19
# Arc:   2.18y
# First observation: 2013/02/13
#  Last observation: 2015/04/20
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000062   0.036451  -0.000010   0.001328   0.030962   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     9.23 DOF:   32 RMS:  0.12
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.25    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.896237E-05  3.667624E-02  1.267347E-06  1.300388E-03  3.066288E-02  7.592981E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  3.6645E-13 -5.4053E-13  1.7066E-15 -1.2225E-14 -2.8186E-13 -4.9169E-12
 -5.4053E-13  2.2430E-12 -5.8347E-15  5.9809E-14  1.3895E-12  2.7612E-11
  1.7066E-15 -5.8347E-15  2.9391E-13 -1.5732E-13 -9.6154E-15 -6.4835E-14
 -1.2225E-14  5.9809E-14 -1.5732E-13  1.1632E-13  5.1866E-14  7.5176E-13
 -2.8186E-13  1.3895E-12 -9.6154E-15  5.1866E-14  1.1859E-12  1.7501E-11
 -4.9169E-12  2.7612E-11 -6.4835E-14  7.5176E-13  1.7501E-11  3.5910E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   17.299546  148.902145    0.070831    0.292771   -0.939783  2456336.868868
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456330.5000  =  2013/02/07
Mean Anomaly:            3.90789 +/-     0.101
Argument of Peri:       76.93452 +/-     0.163
Long of Asc Node:       65.83162 +/-     0.002
Inclination:            16.92053 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.22080298 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     43.01547216 +/-    0.0045
Time of Perihelion: 2455211.8997 +/-      28.8
Perihelion:          33.51752776 +/-    0.0052
Aphelion:            52.51341657 +/-    0.0067
Period (y)              282.1274 +/-      0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -27.46813161 +/-    0.0010
Ecliptic Y           16.65354726 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z            9.69797807 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00172351 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00278764 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00013115 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   33.55427945 +/-    0.0008
Geocenter to KBO     32.61272144 +/-    0.0012
# Hcoef:  7.04

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AK281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AK281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2013 02  13.36809  10 31 04.481  +27 58 06.95  21.9w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2013 02  13.38190  10 31 04.407  +27 58 07.73  22.2w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2013 02  13.39571  10 31 04.313  +27 58 08.17  22.0w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2013 02  13.40966  10 31 04.227  +27 58 08.62  22.3w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 02  10.54927  10 40 13.780  +27 10 28.50  21.8i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 02  10.56156  10 40 13.693  +27 10 29.04  21.5i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 02  10.57358  10 40 13.624  +27 10 29.34  21.5i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 02  10.58542  10 40 13.561  +27 10 30.04  21.6i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  15.60814  10 51 03.645  +26 03 40.45  21.2i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  15.62047  10 51 03.598  +26 03 41.10  21.6i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  15.63282  10 51 03.548  +26 03 41.58  21.6i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.56751  10 50 12.006  +26 12 37.61  21.8w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.57850  10 50 11.945  +26 12 38.10  22.2w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.58950  10 50 11.899  +26 12 38.79  22.1w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.60053  10 50 11.837  +26 12 39.15  22.1w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.33532  10 42 46.641  +26 44 34.03  22.5w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.34814  10 42 46.601  +26 44 33.94  22.4w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.36105  10 42 46.569  +26 44 34.03  22.5w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.37405  10 42 46.522  +26 44 33.77  22.2w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.12
  2   0.0000     -1.21     0.03       0.34     0.17
  3   0.0001     -2.52    -0.04       0.27     0.05
  4   0.0001     -3.75     0.00       0.24    -0.02
  5   0.9916   7842.71     0.09     252.37    -0.00
  6   0.9916   7841.43    -0.09     252.40    -0.03
  7   0.9917   7840.46     0.01     252.30    -0.18
  8   0.9917   7839.41     0.01     252.60     0.07
  9   1.9199  17472.34    -0.11     194.93    -0.25
 10   1.9199  17471.48    -0.14     195.26    -0.16
 11   1.9200  17470.66    -0.14     195.41    -0.23
 12   1.9526  16609.56     0.17     389.85     0.12
 13   1.9527  16608.60     0.09     389.95     0.09
 14   1.9527  16607.74     0.10     390.32     0.32
 15   1.9527  16606.83     0.07     390.30     0.16
 16   2.1792  10345.75    -0.09    -341.97    -0.13
 17   2.1793  10345.29    -0.04    -342.27    -0.08
 18   2.1793  10344.86     0.03    -342.37     0.18
 19   2.1793  10344.39     0.06    -342.86     0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AK281    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        42.901    42.916    42.886
ecceobj         0.218     0.218     0.218
incobj         16.905    16.905    16.905
qmin           32.675    31.321    32.325
qmax           53.478    56.844    53.782
amean          42.851    42.854    42.802
amin           42.300    42.212    42.225
amax           43.392    44.526    43.510
emean           0.210     0.228     0.216
emin            0.186     0.190     0.185
emax            0.236     0.277     0.244
imean          15.715    14.844    15.638
imin           14.149    10.032    14.100
imax           17.268    16.932    17.480
excite_mean     0.343     0.344     0.346
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.949     2.947     2.947

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       182.6     175.0     177.2
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0