Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AK281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AK281   
# Created Tue Feb 19 02:10:26 2019
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   93 observations of   93
# Arc:   7.07y
# First observation: 2011/02/14
#  Last observation: 2018/03/10
# Chi-squared of fit:   103.23 DOF:  180 RMS:  0.19
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.53    1.10
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.040418E-05  3.670862E-02  1.505788E-06  2.121417E-03  3.069491E-02  1.939299E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.0656E-13 -8.7517E-14  4.5963E-15 -3.7682E-15 -4.2847E-14 -2.3209E-13
 -8.7517E-14  5.2704E-14 -3.3337E-15  2.7564E-15  3.2288E-14  1.6924E-13
  4.5963E-15 -3.3337E-15  1.1653E-13 -2.1890E-14 -1.2235E-15 -1.1771E-14
 -3.7682E-15  2.7564E-15 -2.1890E-14  4.8742E-15  2.3248E-15  9.7133E-15
 -4.2847E-14  3.2288E-14 -1.2235E-15  2.3248E-15  7.9976E-14  1.1301E-13
 -2.3209E-13  1.6924E-13 -1.1771E-14  9.7133E-15  1.1301E-13  5.9682E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   17.105815  144.486285   -0.014256    0.291501   -0.947214  2455606.911716
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455606.5000  =  2011/02/14
Mean Anomaly:            1.31871 +/-     0.004
Argument of Peri:       77.02960 +/-     0.007
Long of Asc Node:       65.86461 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            16.92232 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.21554920 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     42.73019780 +/-    0.0019
Time of Perihelion: 2455232.7783 +/-       1.2
Perihelion:          33.51973805 +/-    0.0019
Aphelion:            51.94065755 +/-    0.0026
Period (y)              279.3255 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -26.15642877 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Y           18.65082494 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z            9.58264751 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00187136 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00268183 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00018595 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   33.52370659 +/-    0.0002
Geocenter to KBO     32.57873311 +/-    0.0003
# Hcoef:  6.91

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AK281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AK281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2011 02  14.41095  10 12 56.377  +29 23 14.58  22.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2011 02  21.29317  10 12 12.607  +29 26 57.02  20.8G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2011 02  21.30496  10 12 12.552  +29 26 57.46  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2011 02  21.31836  10 12 12.468  +29 26 57.60  20.8G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2011 02  21.33093  10 12 12.393  +29 26 57.99  21.4G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2012 01  15.61695  10 24 48.766  +28 21 13.14  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2012 02  01.59859  10 23 21.060  +28 33 29.72  23.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2012 02  04.57274  10 23 03.725  +28 35 31.76  21.4G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2012 02  04.58523  10 23 03.641  +28 35 31.78  21.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2013 02  13.36809  10 31 04.481  +27 58 06.95  21.9w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2013 02  13.38190  10 31 04.407  +27 58 07.73  22.2w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2013 02  13.39571  10 31 04.313  +27 58 08.17  22.0w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2013 02  13.40966  10 31 04.227  +27 58 08.62  22.3w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2013 03  01.50009  10 29 24.215  +28 07 00.24  22.5G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2014 01  26.62697  10 41 35.328  +26 59 53.59  22.5G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2014 01  26.63993  10 41 35.266  +26 59 54.34  21.9G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2014 02  10.54927  10 40 13.780  +27 10 28.50  21.8i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 02  10.56156  10 40 13.693  +27 10 29.04  21.5i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 02  10.57358  10 40 13.624  +27 10 29.34  21.5i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 02  10.58542  10 40 13.561  +27 10 30.04  21.6i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2014 12  27.47109  10 51 56.094  +25 50 02.66  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2015 01  15.60814  10 51 03.645  +26 03 40.45  21.2i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  15.62047  10 51 03.598  +26 03 41.10  21.6i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  15.63282  10 51 03.548  +26 03 41.58  21.6i 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.56751  10 50 12.006  +26 12 37.61  21.8w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.57850  10 50 11.945  +26 12 38.10  22.2w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.58950  10 50 11.899  +26 12 38.79  22.1w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  27.60053  10 50 11.837  +26 12 39.15  22.1w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.33532  10 42 46.641  +26 44 34.03  22.5w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.34814  10 42 46.601  +26 44 33.94  22.4w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.36105  10 42 46.569  +26 44 34.03  22.5w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  20.37405  10 42 46.522  +26 44 33.77  22.2w 15AK281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  21.38443  10 42 43.172  +26 44 23.68  23.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2015 04  24.37607  10 42 33.897  +26 43 50.20  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  03.54554  11 00 07.849  +25 05 18.53  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  14.46542  10 59 37.361  +25 13 08.05  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  14.47857  10 59 37.322  +25 13 08.61  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  14.49169  10 59 37.253  +25 13 09.37  21.7G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  14.50483  10 59 37.221  +25 13 09.76  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  21.46756  10 59 11.265  +25 18 21.16  22.4G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  30.47247  10 58 31.215  +25 25 05.30  21.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  31.46888  10 58 26.391  +25 25 49.73  21.7G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  31.48116  10 58 26.321  +25 25 50.35  21.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  31.49381  10 58 26.259  +25 25 50.90  21.6G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  31.50661  10 58 26.191  +25 25 51.46  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYI      
2016 01  31.57629  10 58 25.838  +25 25 54.43  21.7G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 01  31.58918  10 58 25.798  +25 25 54.84  22.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 01  31.60207  10 58 25.709  +25 25 56.02  21.4G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 01  31.61456  10 58 25.652  +25 25 56.03  20.8G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  05.39486  10 58 01.459  +25 29 26.93  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  05.40786  10 58 01.389  +25 29 27.44  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  05.42087  10 58 01.322  +25 29 28.07  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  05.43391  10 58 01.236  +25 29 28.70  21.9G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  10.38714  10 57 34.600  +25 33 01.54  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  10.39815  10 57 34.552  +25 33 01.70  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  10.40913  10 57 34.490  +25 33 02.25  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  10.42014  10 57 34.431  +25 33 02.74  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  11.53843  10 57 28.212  +25 33 49.75  21.9G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  11.55111  10 57 28.131  +25 33 50.34  21.8G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  11.56376  10 57 28.065  +25 33 50.86  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 02  26.58611  10 56 00.176  +25 43 33.04  21.6G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 04  29.36551  10 50 49.531  +25 55 16.76  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 04  29.37793  10 50 49.507  +25 55 16.47  21.8G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 04  29.39035  10 50 49.463  +25 55 16.43  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 05  03.31019  10 50 40.324  +25 54 09.08  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 05  28.27963  10 50 23.347  +25 42 17.92  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 05  28.29124  10 50 23.354  +25 42 17.49  22.4G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 05  28.30293  10 50 23.369  +25 42 17.09  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2016 05  28.31458  10 50 23.371  +25 42 16.71  21.9G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  31.46880  11 06 46.639  +24 35 18.35  22.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  31.47997  11 06 46.615  +24 35 18.70  21.9G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  31.49123  11 06 46.548  +24 35 19.42  21.5G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 01  31.50242  11 06 46.472  +24 35 20.08  21.6G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 03  15.46110  11 02 42.274  +25 01 53.05  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 03  21.28739  11 02 08.386  +25 04 05.46  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 03  21.30015  11 02 08.317  +25 04 05.64  22.4G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 03  21.31292  11 02 08.247  +25 04 05.86  22.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 03  21.32561  11 02 08.172  +25 04 06.14  22.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  31.54448  11 16 36.759  +23 20 27.60  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  31.55719  11 16 36.729  +23 20 28.11  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  31.56992  11 16 36.705  +23 20 28.65  22.9G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2017 12  31.58260  11 16 36.699  +23 20 28.98  22.5G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  14.48847  11 16 06.713  +23 30 00.50  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  14.50206  11 16 06.694  +23 30 01.22  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  14.51558  11 16 06.631  +23 30 01.85  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 01  14.52907  11 16 06.600  +23 30 02.30  22.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 02  10.42105  11 14 14.297  +23 49 55.57  22.0G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 02  10.43384  11 14 14.227  +23 49 56.10  21.9G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 02  10.44666  11 14 14.163  +23 49 56.40  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 03  10.34193  11 11 34.045  +24 07 29.84  22.1G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 03  10.35373  11 11 33.983  +24 07 30.03  22.3G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 03  10.36553  11 11 33.909  +24 07 30.39  22.5G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      
2018 03  10.37737  11 11 33.852  +24 07 30.97  22.2G 15AK281   F51  C~2rYJ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.36       0.00     0.04
  2   0.0188      0.00    -0.45       0.00     0.01
  3   0.0189      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.09
  4   0.0189      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.18
  5   0.0189      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.18
  6   0.9177      0.00    -0.29       0.00     0.12
  7   0.9642      0.00     1.10       0.00    -0.20
  8   0.9724      0.00     0.28       0.00     0.08
  9   0.9724      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.40
 10   1.9985      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.11
 11   1.9986      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.15
 12   1.9986      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.06
 13   1.9986      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.02
 14   2.0427      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.29
 15   2.9493      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.07
 16   2.9493      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.11
 17   2.9901      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.01
 18   2.9901      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.06
 19   2.9902      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.12
 20   2.9902      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.11
 21   3.8660      0.00    -0.53       0.00     0.07
 22   3.9184      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.03
 23   3.9184      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.07
 24   3.9185      0.00    -0.22       0.00    -0.00
 25   3.9511      0.00     0.25       0.00     0.20
 26   3.9512      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.20
 27   3.9512      0.00     0.27       0.00     0.40
 28   3.9512      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.27
 29   4.1778      0.00    -0.22       0.00     0.12
 30   4.1778      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.15
 31   4.1778      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.36
 32   4.1779      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.22
 33   4.1806      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.25
 34   4.1888      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.09
 35   4.8847      0.00     0.43       0.00     0.40
 36   4.9146      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.05
 37   4.9146      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.07
 38   4.9147      0.00    -0.36       0.00     0.10
 39   4.9147      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.10
 40   4.9338      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.12
 41   4.9584      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.11
 42   4.9611      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.07
 43   4.9612      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.00
 44   4.9612      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.02
 45   4.9612      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.03
 46   4.9614      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.15
 47   4.9615      0.00     0.23       0.00    -0.31
 48   4.9615      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.30
 49   4.9615      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.25
 50   4.9746      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.02
 51   4.9747      0.00     0.02       0.00    -0.04
 52   4.9747      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.02
 53   4.9747      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.07
 54   4.9883      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.18
 55   4.9883      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.13
 56   4.9884      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.05
 57   4.9884      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.03
 58   4.9915      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.05
 59   4.9915      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.01
 60   4.9915      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.01
 61   5.0326      0.00     0.68       0.00     0.51
 62   5.2045      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.03
 63   5.2046      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.12
 64   5.2046      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.03
 65   5.2153      0.00     0.47       0.00     0.02
 66   5.2837      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.03
 67   5.2837      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.02
 68   5.2838      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
 69   5.2838      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.08
 70   5.9632      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.14
 71   5.9632      0.00     0.27       0.00    -0.29
 72   5.9633      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.08
 73   5.9633      0.00    -0.24       0.00     0.08
 74   6.0809      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.05
 75   6.0969      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.06
 76   6.0969      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.03
 77   6.0969      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.07
 78   6.0970      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.05
 79   6.8778      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.04
 80   6.8779      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.03
 81   6.8779      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.02
 82   6.8780      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.14
 83   6.9160      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.08
 84   6.9161      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.05
 85   6.9161      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.09
 86   6.9161      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.05
 87   6.9898      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.12
 88   6.9898      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.09
 89   6.9898      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.17
 90   7.0662      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.01
 91   7.0662      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.18
 92   7.0663      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.19
 93   7.0663      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AK281    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        42.902    42.902    42.902
ecceobj         0.218     0.218     0.218
incobj         16.904    16.904    16.904
qmin           31.909    32.190    31.848
qmax           56.948    54.360    55.930
amean          43.097    42.944    42.847
amin           42.301    42.252    42.209
amax           44.721    43.640    44.434
emean           0.220     0.217     0.218
emin            0.180     0.184     0.184
emax            0.273     0.250     0.263
imean          15.362    15.535    15.086
imin           13.348    13.943    11.811
imax           17.158    17.343    16.949
excite_mean     0.345     0.345     0.340
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.950     2.949     2.951

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       176.7     180.8     179.9
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9