Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AJ281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AJ281   
# Created Tue Oct 24 01:38:32 2017
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting   22 observations of   22
# Arc:   4.00y
# First observation: 2011/03/25
#  Last observation: 2015/03/25
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000072   0.022251  -0.000010  -0.000834   0.023136   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    26.68 DOF:   38 RMS:  0.19
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.56    0.47
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.431621E-05  2.192388E-02 -1.020210E-06 -8.242320E-04  2.336356E-02 -3.020520E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.8857E-13 -1.0819E-13 -2.2357E-15  1.2791E-15  2.7316E-14 -5.3972E-13
 -1.0819E-13  3.8512E-13 -1.4345E-14 -6.8582E-15  2.3315E-13  3.9761E-12
 -2.2357E-15 -1.4345E-14  1.7302E-13 -4.7641E-14 -4.4786E-14 -2.2231E-13
  1.2791E-15 -6.8582E-15 -4.7641E-14  2.2145E-14 -3.3313E-15 -7.3132E-14
  2.7316E-14  2.3315E-13 -4.4786E-14 -3.3313E-15  6.5843E-13  3.4857E-12
 -5.3972E-13  3.9761E-12 -2.2231E-13 -7.3132E-14  3.4857E-12  4.5249E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -27.312631  161.369996   -0.383172   -0.424378   -0.821794  2455645.563426
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455640.5000  =  2011/03/20
Mean Anomaly:          272.15452 +/-     0.077
Argument of Peri:        8.83358 +/-     0.054
Long of Asc Node:      255.90477 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            26.81198 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.12768285 +/-    0.0003
Semi-Major Axis:     43.13278473 +/-    0.0070
Time of Perihelion: 2480888.4771 +/-      21.2
Perihelion:          37.62546768 +/-    0.0141
Aphelion:            48.64010178 +/-    0.0149
Period (y)              283.2823 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -37.03221945 +/-    0.0013
Ecliptic Y           12.08047338 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z          -19.63942770 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00048227 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00254315 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00007662 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   43.62373477 +/-    0.0011
Geocenter to KBO     42.80169849 +/-    0.0015
# Hcoef:  5.45

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AJ281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AJ281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2011 03  25.06266  10 09 00.491  -17 56 36.13  21.5R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  25.14645  10 09 00.168  -17 56 32.85  21.1R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  25.22775  10 08 59.832  -17 56 30.12  21.0R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  26.01131  10 08 56.928  -17 55 59.44  20.9R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  26.12723  10 08 56.484  -17 55 55.16  21.3R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  26.23556  10 08 56.063  -17 55 51.27  21.2R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 05  26.01557  10 07 26.43   -17 15 57.3         15AJ281   807  C~0evL      
2011 05  26.04498  10 07 26.47   -17 15 56.6         15AJ281   807  C~0evL      
2013 03  20.36358  10 18 56.639  -19 03 28.02  20.7i 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2013 03  20.37616  10 18 56.590  -19 03 27.64  20.9i 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2013 03  20.38928  10 18 56.542  -19 03 27.16  20.9r 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2013 03  20.40078  10 18 56.490  -19 03 26.64  20.8r 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2015 01  06.54686  10 34 02.340  -20 19 09.33  21.0i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  06.55984  10 34 02.318  -20 19 09.48  20.6i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  06.57284  10 34 02.281  -20 19 09.79  20.6i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 02  02.49318  10 32 26.057  -20 23 03.42  21.0i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 02  02.50451  10 32 25.996  -20 23 03.20  21.1i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 02  02.52707  10 32 25.912  -20 23 03.11  21.3i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.37508  10 28 33.240  -20 03 57.74  21.2i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.38686  10 28 33.195  -20 03 57.36  21.1i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.39862  10 28 33.150  -20 03 57.20  21.5i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.41038  10 28 33.092  -20 03 56.62  21.1i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.10
  2   0.0002     -5.53     0.10       1.19     0.18
  3   0.0005    -11.02    -0.03       1.79    -0.30
  4   0.0026    -61.22     0.21      13.54     0.47
  5   0.0029    -68.74     0.27      14.96     0.30
  6   0.0032    -75.79     0.28      16.15    -0.02
  7   0.1696  -2202.96    -0.56    1704.22    -0.20
  8   0.1697  -2202.71    -0.35    1705.09    -0.37
  9   1.9885   9379.45    -0.12    -387.84    -0.09
 10   1.9885   9378.66    -0.04    -387.75    -0.14
 11   1.9886   9377.85     0.06    -387.57    -0.10
 12   1.9886   9376.97    -0.02    -387.37    -0.02
 13   3.7878  23029.19    -0.27     177.67    -0.09
 14   3.7878  23028.95    -0.13     177.41     0.08
 15   3.7878  23028.57    -0.13     176.93     0.03
 16   3.8615  21839.40     0.19    -537.52    -0.14
 17   3.8616  21838.51    -0.02    -537.63    -0.02
 18   3.8616  21837.36     0.17    -537.98     0.08
 19   4.0009  18337.83    -0.03    -677.76     0.20
 20   4.0009  18337.09     0.05    -677.64     0.15
 21   4.0009  18336.44     0.21    -677.73    -0.09
 22   4.0010  18335.46     0.04    -677.49    -0.02

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AJ281    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        43.163    43.183    43.144
ecceobj         0.126     0.127     0.126
incobj         26.794    26.794    26.793
qmin           36.899    36.743    36.610
qmax           50.062    50.246    50.423
amean          43.345    43.344    43.343
amin           42.998    42.992    42.996
amax           43.725    43.734    43.741
emean           0.132     0.134     0.137
emin            0.118     0.121     0.122
emax            0.146     0.150     0.153
imean          28.223    28.186    28.151
imin           27.897    27.819    27.745
imax           28.568    28.525    28.492
excite_mean     0.491     0.491     0.491
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.790     2.790     2.790

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       164.9     166.2     169.2
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     179.9