Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15AJ281

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15AJ281   
# Created Tue Oct 23 01:09:48 2018
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   66 observations of   66
# Arc:   7.87y
# First observation: 2010/02/25
#  Last observation: 2018/01/09
# Chi-squared of fit:    71.14 DOF:  126 RMS:  0.18
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.59    0.65
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.573121E-05  2.184756E-02  4.095073E-07 -9.590080E-04  2.332380E-02 -2.768425E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.6125E-13 -1.4706E-13  6.2002E-15  2.8432E-15 -9.1572E-14 -5.9962E-13
 -1.4706E-13  7.6325E-14 -4.0388E-15 -1.6711E-15  5.6719E-14  3.5290E-13
  6.2002E-15 -4.0388E-15  1.5682E-13 -2.6143E-14 -1.0801E-14 -1.9973E-14
  2.8432E-15 -1.6711E-15 -2.6143E-14  5.2451E-15 -1.2875E-15 -8.2928E-15
 -9.1572E-14  5.6719E-14 -1.0801E-14 -1.2875E-15  1.0013E-13  2.8095E-13
 -5.9962E-13  3.5290E-13 -1.9973E-14 -8.2928E-15  2.8095E-13  1.7512E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -27.300427  160.556400    0.070758   -0.454994   -0.881506  2455252.894476
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455252.5000  =  2010/02/25
Mean Anomaly:          270.76887 +/-     0.022
Argument of Peri:        8.91941 +/-     0.015
Long of Asc Node:      255.99341 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            26.81506 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.12885199 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     43.11939660 +/-    0.0021
Time of Perihelion: 2480886.7935 +/-       8.4
Perihelion:          37.56337633 +/-    0.0031
Aphelion:            48.67541688 +/-    0.0034
Period (y)              283.1504 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -36.83442104 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           13.07604715 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic Z          -19.66471316 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00053024 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00252583 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00004896 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   43.75460735 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     42.87476868 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  5.14

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AJ281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AJ281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2010 02  25.39371  10 06 14.295  -17 38 47.98  21.2G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2010 12  16.63045  10 15 16.626  -18 06 22.00  21.4G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2011 03  25.06266  10 09 00.491  -17 56 36.13  21.5R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  25.14645  10 09 00.168  -17 56 32.85  21.1R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  25.22775  10 08 59.832  -17 56 30.12  21.0R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  26.01131  10 08 56.928  -17 55 59.44  20.9R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  26.12723  10 08 56.484  -17 55 55.16  21.3R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 03  26.23556  10 08 56.063  -17 55 51.27  21.2R 15AJ281   809  C~0UX7      
2011 05  26.01557  10 07 26.43   -17 15 57.3         15AJ281   807  C~0evL      
2011 05  26.04498  10 07 26.47   -17 15 56.6         15AJ281   807  C~0evL      
2011 12  05.63688  10 20 09.969  -18 30 42.82  21.4G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2012 01  28.52358  10 17 58.768  -18 49 19.97  20.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2012 01  28.53570  10 17 58.713  -18 49 20.02  20.8G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2012 02  02.46132  10 17 37.480  -18 49 04.22  21.5G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2012 02  04.46351  10 17 28.602  -18 48 51.92  21.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2012 02  04.47611  10 17 28.545  -18 48 51.77  22.0G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2012 12  22.65477  10 24 41.794  -19 11 51.30  21.8G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2013 03  20.36358  10 18 56.639  -19 03 28.02  20.7i 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2013 03  20.37616  10 18 56.590  -19 03 27.64  20.9i 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2013 03  20.38928  10 18 56.542  -19 03 27.16  20.9r 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2013 03  20.40078  10 18 56.490  -19 03 26.64  20.8r 15AJ281   F51  C~2FaT      
2013 05  05.29408  10 16 53.006  -18 31 56.26  21.6G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2013 12  15.62374  10 29 44.316  -19 38 35.20  21.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2015 01  06.54686  10 34 02.340  -20 19 09.33  21.0i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  06.55984  10 34 02.318  -20 19 09.48  20.6i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 01  06.57284  10 34 02.281  -20 19 09.79  20.6i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 02  02.49318  10 32 26.057  -20 23 03.42  21.0i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 02  02.50451  10 32 25.996  -20 23 03.20  21.1i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 02  02.52707  10 32 25.912  -20 23 03.11  21.3i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.37508  10 28 33.240  -20 03 57.74  21.2i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.38686  10 28 33.195  -20 03 57.36  21.1i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.39862  10 28 33.150  -20 03 57.20  21.5i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 03  25.41038  10 28 33.092  -20 03 56.62  21.1i 15AJ281   F51  C~1vY1      
2015 04  23.25144  10 27 00.458  -19 43 51.32  20.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2015 04  26.24133  10 26 54.293  -19 41 41.49  21.7G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2015 04  26.24230  10 26 54.296  -19 41 41.29  21.6G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2015 06  11.25875  10 26 58.403  -19 13 22.18  21.7G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 02  12.49811  10 36 46.836  -20 52 47.10  20.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 02  12.50887  10 36 46.782  -20 52 46.96  21.0G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 02  12.51961  10 36 46.739  -20 52 46.85  20.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 02  12.53041  10 36 46.684  -20 52 46.76  21.0G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 03  02.43331  10 35 17.078  -20 47 04.64  20.5G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 03  02.44543  10 35 17.035  -20 47 04.18  20.8G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 03  02.45754  10 35 16.965  -20 47 03.95  20.8G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 03  12.39212  10 34 30.269  -20 42 20.18  21.3G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 03  12.40377  10 34 30.219  -20 42 19.78  21.2G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 03  12.41544  10 34 30.162  -20 42 19.49  21.0G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 03  12.42708  10 34 30.108  -20 42 19.06  21.0G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 04  12.32463  10 32 28.240  -20 22 28.14  20.6G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 04  12.33496  10 32 28.204  -20 22 27.56  20.7G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 04  12.34530  10 32 28.167  -20 22 27.15  20.8G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2016 04  12.35566  10 32 28.140  -20 22 26.76  20.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 03  16.34812  10 39 20.979  -21 11 13.38  21.7G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 04  25.25238  10 36 59.330  -20 44 08.95  20.9G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 04  25.26333  10 36 59.302  -20 44 08.47  21.0G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 04  25.27430  10 36 59.272  -20 44 07.99  21.1G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 04  28.26308  10 36 53.046  -20 41 56.33  21.2G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 04  28.27467  10 36 53.028  -20 41 55.80  21.3G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 12  26.57512  10 49 40.177  -21 44 14.15  21.5G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 12  26.58611  10 49 40.155  -21 44 14.39  21.5G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 12  26.59710  10 49 40.135  -21 44 14.65  21.2G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2017 12  26.60811  10 49 40.116  -21 44 15.03  21.2G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2018 01  09.56537  10 49 11.545  -21 50 16.17  21.1G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2018 01  09.57571  10 49 11.514  -21 50 16.31  21.4G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2018 01  09.58604  10 49 11.496  -21 50 16.60  21.4G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      
2018 01  09.59636  10 49 11.460  -21 50 16.79  21.5G 15AJ281   F51  C~2kRK      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.27       0.00    -0.13
  2   0.8056      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.14
  3   1.0751      0.00     0.40       0.00     0.22
  4   1.0753      0.00     0.43       0.00     0.30
  5   1.0755      0.00     0.11       0.00    -0.09
  6   1.0777      0.00     0.65       0.00     0.52
  7   1.0780      0.00     0.64       0.00     0.35
  8   1.0783      0.00     0.52       0.00     0.04
  9   1.2447      0.00    -0.46       0.00     0.29
 10   1.2448      0.00    -0.33       0.00     0.05
 11   1.7748      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.08
 12   1.9223      0.00    -0.23       0.00     0.05
 13   1.9224      0.00    -0.27       0.00    -0.01
 14   1.9358      0.00    -0.23       0.00    -0.12
 15   1.9413      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.13
 16   1.9414      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.07
 17   2.8234      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.19
 18   3.0636      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.02
 19   3.0636      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.06
 20   3.0636      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.06
 21   3.0637      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.04
 22   3.1893      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.59
 23   3.8035      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.05
 24   4.8628      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.15
 25   4.8629      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.04
 26   4.8629      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.08
 27   4.9366      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.37
 28   4.9366      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.18
 29   4.9367      0.00     0.21       0.00    -0.16
 30   5.0759      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.07
 31   5.0760      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.00
 32   5.0760      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.29
 33   5.0760      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.16
 34   5.1550      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.03
 35   5.1632      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.00
 36   5.1632      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.16
 37   5.2892      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.26
 38   5.9633      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.01
 39   5.9634      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.04
 40   5.9634      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.03
 41   5.9634      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.01
 42   6.0152      0.00    -0.15       0.00    -0.23
 43   6.0152      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.08
 44   6.0152      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.16
 45   6.0424      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.05
 46   6.0425      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.08
 47   6.0425      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.00
 48   6.0425      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.07
 49   6.1271      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.12
 50   6.1271      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.01
 51   6.1272      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.03
 52   6.1272      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.08
 53   7.0526      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.04
 54   7.1618      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.10
 55   7.1619      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.10
 56   7.1619      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.10
 57   7.1701      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.06
 58   7.1701      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.08
 59   7.8335      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.00
 60   7.8335      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.11
 61   7.8335      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.19
 62   7.8336      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.16
 63   7.8718      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.07
 64   7.8718      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.14
 65   7.8718      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.06
 66   7.8719      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.08

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15AJ281    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD  SCATEXTD

axisobj        43.169    43.169    43.169
ecceobj         0.126     0.126     0.126
incobj         26.794    26.794    26.794
qmin           36.919    36.920    36.918
qmax           50.043    50.042    50.044
amean          43.345    43.345    43.345
amin           42.994    42.994    42.995
amax           43.721    43.721    43.721
emean           0.132     0.132     0.131
emin            0.118     0.118     0.117
emax            0.145     0.145     0.145
imean          28.223    28.224    28.226
imin           27.897    27.897    27.897
imax           28.546    28.564    28.586
excite_mean     0.491     0.491     0.491
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.790     2.790     2.790

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       164.9     164.9     165.0
kozaiamp        179.9     179.9     179.9