Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15883

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15883     
# Created Sat Dec 16 02:36:22 2017
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   32 observations of   32
# Arc:  16.11y
# First observation: 1997/02/03
#  Last observation: 2013/03/14
# Chi-squared of fit:   229.15 DOF:   58 RMS:  0.47
# Min/Max residuals:    -1.21    1.16
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.500420E-05  2.366654E-02  4.678457E-06  8.126445E-03  2.466932E-02  4.567979E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00  0.0000E+00
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    2.805477  135.112591    0.007336    0.048520   -0.993218  2450482.920350
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2450482.5000  =  1997/02/03
Mean Anomaly:           47.65521 +/-     0.000
Argument of Peri:      299.55848 +/-     0.000
Long of Asc Node:      127.20797 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            19.20431 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.21057855 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     46.75660510 +/-    0.0000
Time of Perihelion: 2435023.8776 +/-       0.0
Perihelion:          36.91066704 +/-    0.0000
Aphelion:            56.60254316 +/-    0.0000
Period (y)              319.7221 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -29.37865294 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y           29.27338415 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            1.98424544 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00217502 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00152898 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00092544 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   41.52064193 +/-    0.0000
Geocenter to KBO     40.53611042 +/-    0.0000
# Hcoef:  7.14

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15883. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15883) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

1997 02  03.41963  09 13 47.32   +18 58 58.8   22.5R 15883     568  C30145      
1997 02  03.46472  09 13 47.11   +18 58 59.8         15883     568  C30145      
1997 02  03.50861  09 13 46.90   +18 59 01.3         15883     568  C30145      
1997 02  07.42255  09 13 27.36   +19 00 45.7         15883     568  C30145      
1997 02  07.46247  09 13 27.16   +19 00 46.4         15883     568  C30145      
1997 02  09.37141  09 13 17.71   +19 01 36.5         15883     568  C30145      
1997 02  09.44672  09 13 17.29   +19 01 38.2         15883     568  C30145      
1997 02  09.54094  09 13 16.84   +19 01 40.7         15883     568  C30145      
1997 04  07.87649  09 09 42.30   +19 19 35.6         15883     950  C30242      
1997 04  07.91400  09 09 42.20   +19 19 36.1         15883     950  C30242      
1998 02  16.45976  09 18 45.48   +19 06 47.2         15883     568  Ca0526      
1998 02  16.52728  09 18 45.15   +19 06 49.0         15883     568  Ca0526      
1998 02  16.57516  09 18 44.93   +19 06 50.0         15883     568  Ca0526      
1998 02  18.48546  09 18 35.70   +19 07 38.2         15883     568  Ca0526      
1998 02  18.53478  09 18 35.42   +19 07 39.4         15883     568  Ca0526      
1998 12  18.22884  09 28 57.88   +18 41 38.1         15883     950  Ca3586      
1998 12  18.25549  09 28 57.83   +18 41 38.9         15883     950  Ca3586      
1998 12  19.19253  09 28 55.43   +18 41 59.1         15883     950  Ca3586      
1998 12  19.22964  09 28 55.33   +18 41 59.0         15883     950  Ca3586      
1999 01  23.36716  09 26 42.16   +18 57 02.0         15883     705  Ca3586      
1999 01  23.40789  09 26 41.89   +18 57 02.4         15883     705  Ca3586      
1999 01  23.43951  09 26 41.76   +18 57 03.4         15883     705  Ca3586      
1999 01  23.48229  09 26 41.55   +18 57 04.9         15883     705  Ca3586      
1999 12  29.45958  09 34 17.37   +18 46 12.9   22.9R 15883     695  Ca9818      
1999 12  29.53161  09 34 17.12   +18 46 14.4   23.0R 15883     695  Ca9818      
2000 01  05.32677  09 33 53.49   +18 49 07.2   23.4R 15883     697  Ca9818      
2000 01  05.40487  09 33 53.19   +18 49 09.6   23.4R 15883     697  Ca9818      
2000 01  05.48679  09 33 52.88   +18 49 11.6   23.4R 15883     697  Ca9818      
2000 01  05.54127  09 33 52.68   +18 49 12.9   23.2R 15883     697  Ca9818      
2013 03  13.32656  10 40 57.42   +18 32 28.7   22.8R 15883     695  C~0uhl      
2013 03  14.29908  10 40 53.21   +18 32 52.4         15883     695  C~0uhl      
2013 03  14.40920  10 40 52.74   +18 32 55.1         15883     695  C~0uhl      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00    -0.18       0.00     1.01
  2   0.0001      0.00     0.40       0.00    -0.14
  3   0.0002      0.00     0.59       0.00     0.18
  4   0.0110      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.18
  5   0.0111      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.54
  6   0.0163      0.00     0.47       0.00    -0.92
  7   0.0165      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -1.21
  8   0.0168      0.00     0.26       0.00    -1.17
  9   0.1737      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.06
 10   0.1738      0.00    -0.30       0.00     0.25
 11   1.0350      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.69
 12   1.0352      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.77
 13   1.0353      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.56
 14   1.0406      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.00
 15   1.0407      0.00    -0.42       0.00    -0.04
 16   1.8694      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.33
 17   1.8695      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.09
 18   1.8721      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.15
 19   1.8722      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.75
 20   1.9684      0.00     0.40       0.00     0.14
 21   1.9685      0.00    -0.75       0.00    -0.60
 22   1.9686      0.00    -0.45       0.00    -0.48
 23   1.9687      0.00    -0.56       0.00    -0.18
 24   2.8995      0.00     0.22       0.00     1.16
 25   2.8997      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.89
 26   2.9183      0.00     0.37       0.00     0.30
 27   2.9185      0.00     0.31       0.00     0.64
 28   2.9187      0.00     0.32       0.00     0.49
 29   2.9189      0.00     0.42       0.00     0.36
 30  16.1038      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.08
 31  16.1064      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.33
 32  16.1067      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.30

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15883    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        47.080    47.081    47.080
ecceobj         0.216     0.216     0.216
incobj         19.155    19.155    19.155
qmin           36.190    36.209    36.210
qmax           58.568    58.490    58.547
amean          47.100    47.100    47.100
amin           46.684    46.675    46.673
amax           47.628    47.619    47.634
emean           0.213     0.213     0.213
emin            0.197     0.197     0.197
emax            0.230     0.229     0.230
imean          17.860    17.860    17.860
imin           17.268    17.266    17.261
imax           18.411    18.389    18.402
excite_mean     0.373     0.373     0.373
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.966     2.966     2.966

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       175.8     175.7     175.9
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0