Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 02CE251

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 02CE251   
# Created Fri Oct 19 01:08:06 2018
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting   23 observations of   23
# Arc:  13.12y
# First observation: 2002/02/08
#  Last observation: 2015/03/23
# Chi-squared of fit:    71.81 DOF:   40 RMS:  0.31
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.89    0.66
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.899247E-05  4.310268E-02 -2.381864E-06 -7.042696E-03  3.440142E-02 -4.920385E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  6.3677E-13 -7.7456E-14 -7.5045E-15  1.1343E-14  6.9884E-13 -1.0558E-13
 -7.7456E-14  7.3445E-14  8.2712E-15 -1.2239E-14 -2.3938E-14  1.1663E-13
 -7.5045E-15  8.2712E-15  1.3644E-13 -1.3110E-14 -2.6495E-15  1.3435E-14
  1.1343E-14 -1.2239E-14 -1.3110E-14  3.7314E-15  4.2869E-15 -1.9880E-14
  6.9884E-13 -2.3938E-14 -2.6495E-15  4.2869E-15  1.0469E-12 -3.7003E-14
 -1.0558E-13  1.1663E-13  1.3435E-14 -1.9880E-14 -3.7003E-14  1.8944E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    0.004710  163.270373    0.393887   -0.000010   -0.901560  2452313.855633
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2452314.5000  =  2002/02/09
Mean Anomaly:          340.51442 +/-     0.008
Argument of Peri:      214.19003 +/-     0.011
Long of Asc Node:      342.53486 +/-     0.000
Inclination:             9.28234 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.26861748 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     39.47959476 +/-    0.0069
Time of Perihelion: 2457218.7013 +/-      22.6
Perihelion:          28.87468563 +/-    0.0064
Aphelion:            50.08450390 +/-    0.0096
Period (y)              248.0660 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -28.58716800 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Y            9.00933228 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z            0.00233127 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00062097 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00339856 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00056031 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   29.97329728 +/-    0.0008
Geocenter to KBO     29.06866178 +/-    0.0009
# Hcoef:  8.38

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 02CE251. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (02CE251) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2002 02  08.35489  10 58 20.23   +06 34 45.4   22.7R 02CE251   695  Cf5629      
2002 02  08.47609  10 58 19.56   +06 34 49.4         02CE251   695  Cf5629      
2002 03  18.20894  10 54 30.17   +06 55 41.6   23.0R 02CE251   695  Cf5629      
2002 03  18.26785  10 54 29.81   +06 55 43.8         02CE251   695  Cf5629      
2002 04  06.18515  10 52 45.66   +07 05 02.1         02CE251   696  Cf5629      
2002 04  06.24634  10 52 45.35   +07 05 03.8         02CE251   696  Cf5629      
2002 04  06.27479  10 52 45.19   +07 05 04.2         02CE251   696  Cf5629      
2003 03  30.22932  11 01 58.66   +05 42 12.6   22.8R 02CE251   695  Ch8257      
2003 03  30.32694  11 01 58.10   +05 42 15.5         02CE251   695  Ch8257      
2003 03  31.27632  11 01 52.86   +05 42 44.1         02CE251   695  Ch8257      
2004 03  20.31502  11 11 31.87   +04 16 11.3   22.6R 02CE251   662  Ck2152      
2004 03  20.42410  11 11 31.14   +04 16 14.2         02CE251   662  Ck2152      
2013 03  12.29561  12 33 11.76   -08 29 06.0   22.5R 02CE251   G37  C~0qSR      
2013 03  12.29658  12 33 11.74   -08 29 05.6   22.5R 02CE251   695  C~0ucs      
2013 03  12.34973  12 33 11.41   -08 29 04.1         02CE251   695  C~0ucs      
2013 03  12.43009  12 33 10.93   -08 29 01.7         02CE251   G37  C~0qSR      
2013 03  13.31812  12 33 05.59   -08 28 34.8         02CE251   695  C~0ucs      
2014 03  26.13732  12 41 09.66   -09 45 58.8   23.4V 02CE251   W84  C~2J8n      
2014 03  26.20528  12 41 09.22   -09 45 56.5         02CE251   W84  C~2J8n      
2014 03  26.27392  12 41 08.77   -09 45 54.2         02CE251   W84  C~2J8n      
2015 03  23.31993  12 50 57.12   -11 11 11.0   22.5R 02CE251   695  C~1Q3B      
2015 03  23.38391  12 50 56.72   -11 11 08.9         02CE251   695  C~1Q3B      
2015 03  23.44674  12 50 56.32   -11 11 07.0         02CE251   695  C~1Q3B      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

  1   0.0000      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.25
  2   0.0003      0.00     0.43       0.00     0.09
  3   0.1036      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.37
  4   0.1038      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.66
  5   0.1556      0.00     0.65       0.00    -0.15
  6   0.1558      0.00     0.60       0.00    -0.04
  7   0.1558      0.00     0.34       0.00    -0.37
  8   1.1359      0.00    -0.17       0.00     0.24
  9   1.1361      0.00    -0.31       0.00     0.16
 10   1.1387      0.00    -0.56       0.00    -0.08
 11   2.1108      0.00     0.26       0.00    -0.06
 12   2.1111      0.00    -0.64       0.00    -0.89
 13  11.0881      0.00     0.43       0.00    -0.19
 14  11.0881      0.00     0.21       0.00     0.17
 15  11.0883      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.06
 16  11.0885      0.00     0.29       0.00     0.02
 17  11.0909      0.00     0.21       0.00    -0.26
 18  12.1253      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.06
 19  12.1255      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.08
 20  12.1257      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.13
 21  13.1169      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.09
 22  13.1171      0.00     0.10       0.00     0.16
 23  13.1173      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.05

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

02CE251    quality flag:3

Type:           3:2E      3:2E      3:2E

axisobj        39.169    39.169    39.170
ecceobj         0.264     0.264     0.264
incobj          9.307     9.307     9.307
qmin           28.103    28.106    28.102
qmax           51.477    51.566    51.598
amean          39.455    39.455    39.455
amin           38.920    38.897    38.896
amax           40.072    40.087    40.083
emean           0.269     0.270     0.272
emin            0.252     0.253     0.254
emax            0.287     0.287     0.288
imean          10.165    10.166     9.961
imin            9.419     9.460     9.167
imax           10.881    10.813    10.766
excite_mean     0.322     0.322     0.322
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.933     2.932     2.932

libcent 0       180.7     179.6     179.6
libamp  0       125.1     122.4     122.3
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       178.5     183.9     179.8
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9