"Asteroidal Collision Probabilities"

W. F. Bottke, Jr. and R. Greenberg

(1993) Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 879-881.

Several past calculations of collision probabilties between pairs of bodies on independent orbits have yielded inconsistent results. We review the methodologies and identify their various problems. Greenberg's (1982) collision probability formalism (now with a corrected symmetry assumption) is equivalent to Wetherill's (1967) approach, expect that it includes a way to avoid singularities near apsides. That method shows that the procedure by Namiki and Binzel (1991) was accurate for those cass where singularities did not arise.

For more information, contact Bill Bottke:bottke@astrosun.tn.cornell.edu