The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DZ249 # Created Fri Nov 1 01:10:02 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 11 observations of 11 # Arc: 5.04d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/22 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000000 0.044560 0.000001 -0.000791 0.028517 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 31.79 DOF: 17 RMS: 0.30 # Min/Max residuals: -0.70 0.84 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.605346E-05 2.575572E-02 -6.426454E-07 -1.301678E-03 2.553190E-02 -7.633898E-03 # Covariance matrix: 5.7849E-11 9.3415E-08 3.6621E-12 2.5368E-09 1.4836E-08 1.3786E-07 9.3415E-08 1.5165E-04 5.9426E-09 4.1168E-06 2.4076E-05 2.2208E-04 3.6621E-12 5.9426E-09 4.9702E-13 1.3147E-10 9.4351E-10 8.7555E-09 2.5368E-09 4.1168E-06 1.3147E-10 1.1858E-07 6.5361E-07 6.0194E-06 1.4836E-08 2.4076E-05 9.4351E-10 6.5361E-07 3.8225E-06 3.5343E-05 1.3786E-07 2.2208E-04 8.7555E-09 6.0194E-06 3.5343E-05 6.1597E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -14.344453 156.253229 0.142025 -0.241366 -0.944592 2457070.744728 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 311.23625 +/- 63.887 Argument of Peri: 341.59871 +/- 146.268 Long of Asc Node: 257.59555 +/- 7.390 Inclination: 14.27598 +/- 0.386 Eccentricity: 0.31329253 +/- 0.8718 Semi-Major Axis: 46.22747845 +/- 25.0933 Time of Perihelion: 2472620.9645 +/- 15960.7 Perihelion: 31.74475497 +/- 43.8325 Aphelion: 60.71020193 +/- 52.0612 Period (y) 314.3102 +/- 255.92 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -35.57139750 +/- 2.6596 Ecliptic Y 15.80314247 +/- 1.1703 Ecliptic Z -9.70364202 +/- 0.7431 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00035825 +/- 0.0028 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00286688 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00006767 +/- 0.0006 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 40.11513805 +/- 2.4097 Geocenter to KBO 39.16668940 +/- 2.9992 # Hcoef: 7.80
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DZ249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DZ249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.24395 10 11 02.87 -04 08 08.3 24.0g 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 17.31277 10 11 02.53 -04 08 06.3 24.5g 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 18.08711 10 10 58.79 -04 07 48.0 24.2g 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 18.22275 10 10 58.15 -04 07 45.0 23.9g 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 18.29298 10 10 57.77 -04 07 43.3 23.9g 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 18.36188 10 10 57.46 -04 07 41.3 24.6g 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 19.22097 10 10 53.30 -04 07 20.3 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 19.28987 10 10 53.01 -04 07 18.0 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 19.35896 10 10 52.63 -04 07 17.7 24.4g 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 22.07638 10 10 39.48 -04 06 08.3 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 22.28094 10 10 38.48 -04 06 02.6 15DZ249 W84 C~2iOX
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.03
2 0.0002 -5.47 -0.18 0.01 0.29
3 0.0023 -64.24 -0.23 -3.38 -0.04
4 0.0027 -74.25 0.24 -4.09 -0.15
5 0.0029 -80.16 -0.24 -4.58 -0.35
6 0.0031 -85.21 0.03 -4.41 0.10
7 0.0054 -150.82 -0.10 -7.58 0.02
8 0.0056 -155.70 0.37 -7.03 0.84
9 0.0058 -161.10 0.31 -8.82 -0.70
10 0.0132 -369.60 -0.07 -16.05 -0.19
11 0.0138 -385.61 -0.15 -16.21 0.21
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DZ249 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0